Saturday, January 9, 2010

Harry Reid Not Likely To Survive 2010 Election


The Las Vegas Review Journal is reporting that Harry Reid's chances of being reelected in 2010 is very low.

Reid's numbers are pretty ugly, according to the latest survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which interviewed 625 registered Nevada voters by telephone Jan. 5-7. The margin of error on the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

According to the survey:
• 52 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Reid, 33 percent had a favorable view and another 15 percent said they're neutral. In early December, a Mason-Dixon poll put his unfavorable-favorable rating at 49-38. The lowest Reid's popularity had slipped before in the surveys was 50 percent -- in October, August and May of 2009, when Mason-Dixon started tracking the senate race for the Review-Journal.
The poll also took a snapshot of how Reid would do against three potential GOP opponents. In each case -- as in past Review-Journal surveys -- it showed the senator would lose with only four in 10 voters supporting him. The potential match-ups would look like this:
• Sue Lowden, former Nevada Republican Party chairwoman, would get 50 percent of the vote to Reid's 40 percent with 10 percent undecided.
• Danny Tarkanian, a businessman and former UNLV basketball star, would gain 49 percent of the vote to Reid's 41 percent.
• And Sharron Angle, a former Reno assemblywoman, would get 45 percent of the vote to Reid's 40 percent, a strong showing given her low name recognition statewide -- 42 percent don't know her.
Of course, with numbers like these, most politicians would bow out rather than go ahead with an election. But not Harry Reid:

"I am absolutely running for re-election," said Reid, 70, in a statement. "These are difficult times for Nevada and as the majority leader of the Senate I have been able to take action to address those challenges. But I know there is more work to do to turn our state's economy around and create jobs and I am committed to seeing it through."
Even Reid's campaign manager Brandon Hall is optimistic about the 2010 election:
''He's never backed down from a fight,'' said in an interview when asked whether Reid would retire instead of seeking a fifth Senate term. He added, ''We're not trying to win a beauty contest here.''

Reid's campaign manager Hall said internal polls show the senator winning the general election against any potential opponent, but he refused to share any details.
Despite the optimism of Harry Reid and his campaign staff, Brad Coker, the managing partner of Mason-Dixon, said this about his chances of winning in 2010:
The senator's negatives are so bad that he will have a tough time making a comeback and earning more than 40 percent of the vote come November.
The 2010 election is only ten months away. Harry Reid could make a last minute comeback but the poll numbers for Harry Reid is pretty grim.

2 comments:

Sandra said...

Dear The LDS Phrontistery:

I would respectfully, yet strongly disagree with many of the assumptions some are making. The problem is that when Senator Reid goes out of his way to be of help to the Residents of this state, NO ONE EVER REPORTS it.

When it came time to help & the PEOPLE BEGGED FOR HELP to all of the current Elected Officials here in NV, & locally in Las Vegas, & the 3 Candidates who are seeking to run against him, not a single one acted, except for Senator Harry Reid.
Harry Reid went to bat for many of middle-class, low-income, poverty level, & below poverty level income families in this town to attempt to save jobs, homes, & aid in many other ways with standard "help" we Residents of Nevada need.

I have listened in to town hall phone meetings, & all over the State hundreds of people are thankful & grateful for all he is trying to accomplish in NV, especially w/ the Jobs issue.
He was key in the Travel USA legislation, key in making sure there is a proper USO at McCarran, he was the only one to stand up and fight for the Las Vegas US Airways Employees, & all the other affected employees in other states as well, not to mention the jobs he is fighting to create right here in NV today.

He acted the moment we all called and filled them in on what was happening. He moved into immediate action, & is still working on what more can be done to help the US Airways affected employees, who were relocated out of our State or furloughed to go fill out Welfare forms & UnEmployment Benefits forms just to survive when they would rather be employed.
I have personally heard many, Nevadans ask for & receive help regarding Social Security, Medicare, Pending Foreclosures, Tenants being wronged by Rotten Stealing Landlords who take rent money & do not pay mortgages, placing family's at great of homelessness, & many other things. Senator Reid & the helpful staff at his office(s) are able to aid & people daily. One woman told me how Senator Reid showed such concern over this foreclosure mess, he personally went to her home to sit & discuss it with her & see how he could help.

I have witnessed him send help to Constituents in need. He has a team dedicated to helping anyone in our State who it. The amazing people who work in his offices are happy to pick up the phone, return emails, & help in times of great need in any way they can.

These are the facts that no one wants to report about Senator Harry Reid. I report them, and I am only a local Mom & Writer here in Vegas who cares about my Community. Even when I give Senator Reid a hard time on topics which I disagree with him, he always takes the time to respond. The man cares about this State and it's People. Someone other than me should say that every now and then.

Please don't underestimate him, or help allowing the continuation of people thinking that Senator Reid is this horrible, bad-guy who doesn't care, it is beyond inaccurate. The people needed him, he was the only who bothered to care, & take serious, immediate action to help. He does this all the time. This must count for much more than the non-credit so many of the newspapers or media outlets ever give him.

I don't "do" party loyalty, I vote for the Candidate who is working on behalf of the people, and listening to pleas for help from their constituency. All in all I would say it is a shame that more people are not aware of all the GOOD Senator Reid does in this town every single day.

Thanks for the opportunity to respond.

Sandra Bonadonna
Zonepolitical
AllVoices (Sandrabon)

I found your article attached to my news report on my AllVoices Report. Nice to meet you!

J said...

Sandra,

It is a pleasure to meet you as well. You have a great blog!!

My blog was merely to report what the polls are showing about Harry Reid. The polls show then and they still show that his chances of keeping his Senate seat grows dim.

I have no doubt that Harry Reid does much good for his constituents.

Elections are about self promotion in order to win the people's vote. However, if no one hears about the good he does, he has a major PR problem.

He needs to do something to reverse his low polls.

I'm not sure that Harry Reid can pull it off since he has done and said things that have angered people at home and across the United States.

Consequently, his actions and words may have overshadowed much good that he has done for his state.

Thank you for posting on my blog. Please visit often and tell others to visit here too!